000 AXNT20 KNHC 310004 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AGADIR AND MADEIRA ZONES IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REACH 8 TO 9 IN THE BEAUFORT SCALE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W TO 0N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 0N24W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01S37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 03W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 04N W OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE NW ATLC CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF 90W. MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET INTO NORTHERN GULF WHERE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED TO THE NW BASIN BY SW FLOW...THUS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. THIS FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W...HOWEVER IT MAY EXTEND S TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. THE PRES GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW N OF 25N W OF 86W. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS DEEPENS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER CUBA SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ISLAND COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW. EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA... A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS DEEPENS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W SW TO 26N72W. WEST OF THE FRONT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 30N AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N14W SW TO 23N21W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL STALL AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS