000 AXNT20 KNHC 301722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AGADIR AND MADEIRA ZONES IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 8...34-40 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N21W AND CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL E OF 32W BETWEEN 04N-03S. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE BASIN ALOFT KEEPING THE AREA WITH A NW FLOW. WITH THIS...UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN TRANSPORTED INTO THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 24N AND W OF 90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PATCHY FOG ACROSS THIS AREA ALSO. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NW GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THESE WINDS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PERSIST...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY W OF 72W...AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N74W...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N76W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N72W TO 32N57W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAIL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 38N28W. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N32W TO 32N14W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC WILL SUBSIDE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA