000 AXNT20 KNHC 300604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF IRVING...THE WESTERN PART OF MADEIRA...METEOR...AND THE WESTERN PART OF CANARIAS UNTIL 31/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...NORTH OR NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...AND THE NORTHERN PART OF TARFAYA WITH THE THREAT OF A SEVERE GALE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W...TO 04N16W AND NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W/32W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...CURVING TO 01S44W AND 02S48W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THAT NOW ARE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV... AND KVQT. IFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KEMK...AND KEIR. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN PORT ISABEL. IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR IN HARLINGEN...WESLACO...EDINBURG...AND MCALLEN. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS...TO BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO HUNTSVILLE. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...EARLIER RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE HAS ENDED. VFR/NO CEILINGS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO PERRY...AND TO BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA GORDA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 19N45W TO 14N65W TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPANS THE AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 30/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 30/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AFTER THE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTWARD FOR ABOUT 360 NM...AND THEN IT WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD REACHING SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR ALL OF DAY ONE...EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...AND THEN CYCLONIC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO...WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDING DAY TWO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 20N65W. ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N72W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 22NNORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 64W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.92 IN BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N24W 19N45W 14N54W...TO 14N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE PART OF THE TROUGH THAT IS FROM 37W EASTWARD SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N30W AND 30N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W WITH THE REST OF THE TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 26N15W TO 24N40W...TO 09N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N24W 25N34W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N47W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 28N47W TO 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT