000 AXNT20 KNHC 300003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE IRVING AND MADEIRA ZONES IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG GALE...41-47 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 7W AND 24W AND FROM 06S TO 05N W OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTMS...AND HAIL IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. TWO LOW PRES CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MESOSCALE COMPLEX WERE OBSERVED...A 1016 MB LOW S OF JACKSONVILLE NEAR 29N81W WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO 25N81W TO 22N86W AND A 1016 MB LOW OVER TAMPA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 27N83W. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEX MOVED FAIRLY FAST OVER FLORIDA...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER FEATURE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 27N95W. DENSE FOG IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COINCIDING WITH MODERATE TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW PRES STARTS TO BUILD W OF 92W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FRI. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E-SE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WED THROUGH THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY RIDGING IN THE SW N ATLC AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PERSIST...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AS A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS MOVES W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THU MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER WEST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 28N67W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N46W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS