000 AXNT20 KNHC 291726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ZONES IRVING AND MADEIRA IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG GALE...41- 47 KT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S42W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BASIN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W TO 26N89W THEN CONTINUES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 29N89W TO 29N83W. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAINLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 32N74W. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N80W TO 29N77W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 29N77W TO 32N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND S OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-74W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N46W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS TO MERGE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS THE NEW BOUNDARY MOVES SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA