000 AXNT20 KNHC 291109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING... MADEIRA...METEOR...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 30/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE...LOCALLY SEVERE GALE...IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF IRVING...EASTERN SECTIONS OF METEOR...IN MADEIRA...AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO 02N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 02S30W...AND 03S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 97N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 02S BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 95W EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 31N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N72W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO 26N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 26N89W TO 23N94W...AND CURVING TO 18N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 95W EASTWARD. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W 29N86W. A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 30N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N88W...ALONG 30N TO THE BORDER OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KGLS...KVAF...KEIR...KSPR...KATP... AND KIPN. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEMK...KEHC...KVQT... KMDJ...KGHB...AND KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN HARLINGEN AND WESLACO AND MCALLEN. A MIXTURE OF LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR FROM ROCKPORT TO FALFURRIAS...AND FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR AND MVFR IN THE IMMEDIATE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN PATTERSON. IFR IN GALLIANO. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND IN FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD ...VFR/NO CEILINGS. THE REST OF FLORIDA...IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AND AT MACDILL. MVFR IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA. MVFR IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 32N26W-BEYOND- 11N64W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. A TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF DAY ONE... GIVING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COASTAL VENEZUELA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD MORE AND MORE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB FOR DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 360 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. DAY ONE WILL END WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT ALSO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DIRECTION DURING THE DAY...FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST...ETC. EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 24N28W 21N41W 14N57W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 08N68W IN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N15W BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N26W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N52W...TO 25N69W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA...TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT