000 AXNT20 KNHC 290547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING UNTIL 30/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE IN IRVING REACHING MADEIRA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N14W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S33W...01S40W AND 02S44W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N75W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 30N75W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...AND 26N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING NEAR 26N87W AND IT CONTINUES FROM THERE...TO 24N92W AND 19N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N67W 30N72W 28N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 23N79W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGBK...AND KATP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KGHB...AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN HARLINGEN...AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS IN GENERAL. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. MVFR FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS...AND BAY CITY. IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN PASCAGOULA WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ALABAMA...MVFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA... AND IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. MVFR IN VALPARAISO. IFR IN MARIANNA. LIFR IN APALACHICOLA. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. IFR IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN SARASOTA AND IN PUNTA GORDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 32N26W-BEYOND- 11N64W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...OVERALL...IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHEAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. A TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF DAY ONE... GIVING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF COASTAL VENEZUELA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD MORE AND MORE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB FOR DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 360 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. DAY ONE WILL END WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND THE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT ALSO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DIRECTION DURING THE DAY...FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST...ETC. EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 23N32W 17N53W... ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...BEYOND 11N64W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N14W...TO 29N25W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N49W...TO 26N66W...TO AN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT