000 AXNT20 KNHC 290000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ZONE IRVING IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG GALE...41-47 KT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N16W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA OF FLORIDA THROUGH 27N87W TO 23.5N93W WHERE IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SE TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 23N89W TO THE EXTREME EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS COVERED MOST OF THE GULF WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GRIDDED LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS NEAR 27N94W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND VARIABLE SW WINDS TO THE S OF THE FRONT. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE MERGED FRONTS STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF E OF 90W BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE STRONGEST TRADE WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W... WITH 30 KT WINDS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER A 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES. GRIDDED LIGHTNING DATA CONFIRMED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W...AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N52W DOMINATED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB