000 AXNT20 KNHC 281103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 14 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING UNTIL 29/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...CYCLONIC NEAR GALE TO SEVERE GALE IN IRVING...MADEIRA...AND METEOR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 04N15W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...AND TO 03S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N79W...OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N97W 24N90W 28N81W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF 28N80W 30N70W BEYOND 32N67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 1.39 IN BERMUDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N98W...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO TO 31N108W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W...TO 28N88W...BEYOND 26N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR...KEHC...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY... KMIS...AND KDLP. IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA... MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KGUL...KGBK...KGHB... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LOUISIANA... LIFR IN PATTERSON...GALLIANO...PORT FOURCHON...AND BOOTHVILLE. LIFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...IFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FLORIDA... IFR IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN MILTON AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD. THE SKY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FROM CRESTVIEW TO MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN. LIFR IN PANAMA CITY...MARIANNA...AND APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. THE RAIN THAT WAS FALLING IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. IFR IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA BEYOND 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N41W-BEYOND- 11N68W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO- 32N70W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB FOR DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. IT EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE END OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA... BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL REACH CUBA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AFTER THE FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOME EAST WIND FLOW AFTER THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...JUST BEFORE THE END OF DAY TWO. DAY TWO EVENTUALLY WILL END WITH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N35W...THROUGH A MEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N10W...TO 18N54W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...BEYOND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N31W...TO 29N43W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N53W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT