000
AXNT20 KNHC 271723
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 06N10
W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 03N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 01N26W. W OF THE TROUGH...THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N29W TO 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 02S TO 05N BETWEEN 15W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARIES E OF 15W AND W
OF 40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N90W TO 29N85W TO
30N84W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N AND E OF 89W. TO
THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 23N92W TO 18N93W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 90W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N AND E OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION.
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE MOVING N.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS AND DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL AND S
AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-77W WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DIMINISHING TRADES. 

HISPANIOLA...            

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER ISLAND TODAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

AN ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET AND STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 28N W OF 65W. TO THE E...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N54W AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC S OF 25N...WHILE
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL S OF 22N MAINLY N OF
HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS N OF THE AREA AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FL/GA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA