000 AXNT20 KNHC 271051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1031 MB CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N36W AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1500 UTC THIS MORNING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 10 TO 15 ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER THIS AREA. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/ZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 05N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N30W TO 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N FROM THE W AFRICA COAST TO S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 29N91W TO 25N96W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM POSITIONING ALOFT IS AIDING IN DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 94W. OVER THE SW GULF...A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO 18N93W...MOVING W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE TROUGHING AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE N AND NE GULF THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST BY THIS EVENING...MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL AND S AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RELAX BY MON AND THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT DIMINISHING TRADES. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD FACING LOCATIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET AND STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 75W. A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLC...THROUGH THE HIGH CENTER...AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 25N...WITH LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 22N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W...AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS N OF THE AREA AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COASTS ON MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO