000 AXNT20 KNHC 270545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG 1034 MB CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 24N38W AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/ZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 02N30W TO 01N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW DECAYED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N90W TO 27N94W TO 23N96W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM POSITIONING IS AIDING IN DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 94W. ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N84W TO 28N88W IS LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE ABUNDANT LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE JET STREAM. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO 20N93W...MOVING E TO NE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. SURFACE TROUGHING AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE N AND NE GULF THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST BY THIS EVENING...MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL AND S AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RELAX BY MON AND THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT DIMINISHING TRADES. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE GA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W TO 26N81W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES...AND AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO NEAR 27N51W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N38W EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLC...THROUGH THE HIGH CENTER...AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 25N...WITH LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 22N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W...AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS N OF THE AREA...AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COASTS ON MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO