000
AXNT20 KNHC 261715
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
06N11W THEN TO E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 04N17W WHERE THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES TO
01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 27N93W.
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT
WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AFFECTING THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 28N
AND E OF 88W. FOG HAS BEEN ALSO REPORTED OVER THE NE GULF MAINLY
N OF 26N AND E OF 90W. TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N92W TO 20N95W. A FRESH TO
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE GULF IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOW AND FRONT WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
DEPICTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT LIFT BACK NW AS A WARM
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE BASIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAVE
SUBSIDE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THESE TRADES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...            

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF
HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                             

A FRONTAL SYSTEM NW OF OUR AREA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 30N AND W OF 65W.
TO THE E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 35N41W. MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF
50W EXCEPT N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE
TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA