000 AXNT20 KNHC 260603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS SOON IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE AND WILL PULSE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 07N12W THEN TO E ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N16W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01N28W TO 02S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W SW TO 26N94W TO 23N96W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER SW TO 23N90W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS THAT IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SAME REGION. SCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY LIGHT VARIABLE WIND ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PORTION OF THE SE GULF WHERE MODERATE SE FLOW IS PRESENT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE IT LIFT BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NE BASIN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE IN THE NW BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUPPORTING E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NE REGION TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF 67W WITH THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWING ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 50W...THE EXCEPTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W. HIGH PRES AND RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS