000 AXNT20 KNHC 260004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS SOON IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET...DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 03N20W 02N27W 02N29W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 02S38W AND 02S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 91W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST...BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE STATIONARY FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N70W TO 21N76W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KIKT AND KVOA. MVFR CONDITIONS...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS AND MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA AND MILTON...AND IN MARY ESTHER AND DESTIN. LIGHT RAIN IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN VALPARAISO. IFR AT THE NORTHWEST BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR PANAMA CITY. MVFR IN PANAMA CITY... IN MARIANNA...AND IN TALLAHASSEE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER AND/OR ARE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.12 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. PUNTA CANA... LIGHT RAIN AND OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FROM THE 12 HOUR TIME UNTIL THE END OF DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START DAY ONE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE IN A CLOCKWISE- SENSE DURING DAY ONE...ENDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. A SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL BE NEAR 20N82W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W 25N60W AND 24N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...25N50W 22N63W 23N80W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N23W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N43W TO 13N52W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N22W...TO 33N37W...TO A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N50W...THROUGH 32N59W...28N66W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT