000 AXNT20 KNHC 251712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WSW-ENE ORIENTED RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 1033 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 33N50W ALONG WITH A 1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW IS ENHANCING THE TRADEWINDS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. WHILE THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR GALE THIS MORNING...THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH GALE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE DIURNAL PEAK. WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RELATIVELY UNCHANGING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD AGAIN DROP BELOW GALE TOMORROW MORNING...REACH GALE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING...AND DROP TO NEAR GALE ONE ADDITIONAL TIME SUNDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 07N13W THEN TO EAST ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 04N17W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 24N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS INDUCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND IS SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 88W SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BY THE INFRARED IMAGERY...COASTAL RADARS...AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE ONLY FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF MEXICO AND THE STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING NW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS... WHICH WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY SHORTLY WHILE THE PORTION SOUTH OF ABOUT 25N SHOULD DISSIPATE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME ORIENTATED MORE EAST-WEST AND PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS EXTENSIVE...NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA. CARIBBEAN SEA... WSW-ENE ORIENTED RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 1033 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 33N50W ALONG WITH A 1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW IS ENHANCING THE TRADEWINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL PERIODICALLY REACH GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS OR LACK OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGNS OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY RELATIVELY DRY SUBSIDING AIR AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPWIND AND MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 75W. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE BERMUDA AND AZORES HIGHS SETTING UP ALONG 33N ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EQUATORWARD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN SOME MAINTAINING THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE TRADEWINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA