000 AXNT20 KNHC 251028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN AND NEAR TO GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...SEAS IN THE GALE REGION RANGING FROM 10 TO 13 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE AT SUNRISE BUT WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 08N13W THEN TO E ATLC WATERS NEAR 05N16W TO 03N21W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W SW TO 25N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF 95W S OF 21N WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE S FLOW IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BROAD DIFFLUENT REGION IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE BASIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N TO 84W...AS INDICATED BY THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS JUST W OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BEING SUPPORTED BY ANOTHER DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 24N89W TO 18N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE SW BASIN S OF 24N. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BECOME FULLY STATIONARY AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 24N91W. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N40W THROUGH 25N54W. OVER THE SW N ATLC...MAINLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N W OF 74W...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N OBSERVED IN THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 50W AROUND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES AND RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A 1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE FRONT WITH BROAD RIDGING COVERING THE BASIN SW OF THERE AND N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS