000 AXNT20 KNHC 250603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN AND NEAR TO GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...SEAS IN THE GALE REGION RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE AT SUNRISE BUT WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED TO INTERIOR AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N15W TO 04N20W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W THEN TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W SW TO 25N93W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 26N WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LATEST SCAT PASS INDICATE THERE ARE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO 84W. LIGHT TO MODERATE S FLOW IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BROAD DIFFLUENT REGION IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE BASIN AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AS INDICATED BY THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N88W TO 18N92W WITH SHOWERS COVERING THE SW BASIN S OF 22N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N90W WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N93W BY FRI NIGHT.THE FRONT WILL BECOME FULLY STATIONARY EARLY SAT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N42W THROUGH 26N50W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. W OF THE FRONT...OVER THE SW N ATLC...THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW HEAVY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EXTENDING TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF 50W AROUND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ATLC WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE REMAINDER PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH PRES AND RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A 1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NE OF THE FRONT WITH BROAD RIDGING COVERING THE BASIN SW OF THERE AND N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS