000 AXNT20 KNHC 242310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AROUND SUNSET PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT DURING THESE WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SAME AREA AROUND SUNSET FRI THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED TO INTERIOR AFRICA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N16W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR AT 23W WHERE IT CONTINUES. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW EXTENDS AROUND SURFACE RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERED THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ARRIVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH INTENSE AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 120-240 NM AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AT 26N90W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 18N92W BY FRI AFTERNOON...STALLING FRI NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO EARLY SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HISPANIOLA... MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW...AND HAITI AS WELL DUE TO E TO SE TRADE WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N40W THROUGH 27N50W TO 24N72W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING DOWN FROM N OF THE AREA. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN W OF 55W AROUND THE RIDGING...EXCEPT N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH AND RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE E NEAR 33N27W WITH BROAD RIDGING COVERING THE BASIN SW OF THERE AND N OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 55W...OCCASIONALLY AND LOCALLY INCREASING TO STRONG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY