000 AXNT20 KNHC 241803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 48 HOURS... THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 10N16W...TO 06N16W AND 04N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N22W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 01S31W AND 02S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 24W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 42W AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...FROM IOWA AND MISSOURI INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND 30N108W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 75 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 27N TO 30N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 26N95W...TO MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. A SQUALL LINE IS INLAND...WITHIN 45 NM TO 75 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 30N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W...IN PARTS OF COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 22N98W BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KGBK...KGRY...AND KMIS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KEHC...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR... KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS. RAIN AND THUNDER IN GALLIANO AND GRAND ISLE. MVFR IN PORT FOURCHON. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE BOOTHVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN AND THUNDER EVERYWHERE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...RAIN AND THUNDER IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. MVFR FROM CRESTVIEW WESTWARD ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INCLUDING IN DESTIN/ VALPARAISO/MARY ESTHER. MVFR IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...IN NAPLES...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...A CLOUD CEILING AT 2000 FEET...MVFR. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS ON TOP OF JAMAICA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF DAY ONE...BEING FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. THE PATH OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP BEING SOMEWHAT CIRCULAR... PASSING THROUGH 21N68W DURING DAY TWO...AND ENDING UP TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N72W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W 25N60W AND 24N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...25N50W 22N63W 23N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N44W...THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W...TO 32N74W...BEYOND SOUTH CAROLINA. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N40W 24N72W STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT