000 AXNT20 KNHC 241023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 06N11W THROUGH THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 03N16W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03S- 08N E OF 27W AND FROM 02S TO 01N W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW TO THE BASIN. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRES IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS W OF 90W ...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES E OF 94W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING AND RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE BASIN REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SO WILL ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT BY FRI MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 23N THROUGH SAT. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WHERE GOES IFR PROBABILITY OF FOG IS HIGH. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. OTHERWISE...THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE NE COAST OF MEXICO...FROM TAMPICO TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NW WATERS...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N42W TO 26N52W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 24N62W TO 23N72W. HIGH PRES AT 1030 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N57W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E FLOW IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS NEARBY THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS ALSO TO THE NE OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N32W WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT AND RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ATLC REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS