000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU SUNRISE BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 09N13W THROUGH THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 04N15W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W TO 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S-07N E OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW TO THE BASIN. LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRES IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS N OF 25.5N W OF 94W...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES E OF 94W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE BASIN REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI EVENING. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SO WILL ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT BY FRI AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 23N THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W...COINCIDING WITH GOES IFR HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NW WATERS...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N83W TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS VICINITY SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N45W TO 28N53W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 25N60W TO 24N67W. HIGH PRES AT 1030 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 35N60W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SW N ATLC. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS ALSO TO THE NE OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N31W WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS