000 AXNT20 KNHC 232345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SURROUND THE GALE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THESE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10-15 FT NEAR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT SURROUNDING THE GALE AREA. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W THROUGH THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N16W TO 02N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO THE EQUATOR AT 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 10W-14W...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-24W...AND FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN HALF AND 4-8 FT IN THE WESTERN HALF WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OBSERVED OFF OF THE NE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THU. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS WHERE WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE BASIN REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SO WILL ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT BY FRI AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THU AND THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL AND WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO STRONG THU EVENING THEN WILL DIMINISH BY FRI MORNING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE. HISPANIOLA... THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO INDICATED A STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION AT 800 MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WERE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N47W TO 29N51W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 24N65W TO EASTERN CUBA. HIGH PRES AT 1030 MB IS W OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N65W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 120-240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION. A 1029 MB HIGH IS ALSO TO THE E OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N33W WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY