000 AXNT20 KNHC 231802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 174 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED AS OF 1200 UTC WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N TO 05N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE GULF E OF 92W...WHILE LOCALLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF N OF 23N. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IT WILL DRAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THU WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR W GULF BY THU AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THU AND THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT TO A FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE ADJACENT FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ADDITIONAL LOW TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER BELIZE... HONDURAS...AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE MAINLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...TRANSITIONING TO STRONG THE NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO INDICATED A STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION AT 800 MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WERE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 27N54W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES SW THROUGH 25N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N66W AND A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N33W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN DISSIPATING BY LATE THU. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW ATLANTIC BY LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB