000 AXNT20 KNHC 230605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 1200 UTC WED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E...THIS RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA DIMINISHES. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BISSAU AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 0N TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 02S BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB PRES CENTER NEAR 29N84W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH PRES CENTER...N OF 25N E OF 88W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SCAT PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WIND FLOW COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 96W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED BY A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THU MORNING. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NE BASIN WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING BUT MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WIND. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING MOST OF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W...CONTINUING TO 18N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT...INCLUDING BELIZE AND HONDURAS...CUBA AND HAITI. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND TRADES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NE AND SE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HISPANIOLA... EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE FAR NW REGION OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS STARTING TO STALL WHILE IT WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT STARTS TO STALL WHILE IT WEAKENS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF IT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATER TODAY AND WEAKEN BY LATE WED NIGHT. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS