000 AXNT20 KNHC 222344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W- 77W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W TO 01N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR THROUGH 33W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 26N AND E OF 87W. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N83W TO 20N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WITH THIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND STALLS NEAR HAITI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N80W. ITS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 67W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO 32N57W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N AND W OF 55W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL WEAKEN AND STALL E OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA