000 AXNT20 KNHC 221736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 00Z-12Z TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 13-14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 01N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 04W AND 06W...AND FROM 02N TO 03.5N BETWEEN 08W AND 10W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 27W AND FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1026 MB IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW GULF AS HIGH PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE SE CONUS. THIS FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CLEAR SKIES ARE JUST W OF FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU EVENING THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM TAMPA BAY THROUGH 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI...THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. ALOFT...A ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY EARLY SUN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ARE ALSO ADVECTING SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND STALL FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT W AND WEAKEN WED. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE NE DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LATER TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED OVER THE ISLAND LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATER TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA. THIS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N60W THE CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SPREADING THIS CLOUDINESS INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE FLORIDA. THIS MORNING...A WINDSAT PASS HAS NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST DRIFT SE AND STALL FROM 31N52W TO 24N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WED WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 30N-31N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THU. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N34W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR