000 AXNT20 KNHC 221050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER ON WED MORNING AS A CENTER OF HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC MOVES E AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 02N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 03W AND 10W AND FROM 03S TO 02N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 28N89W THAT PROVIDES LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 26N E OF 92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS IN THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF W OF 92W WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO S-SE. MIDDLE- LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN THE NORTHERN BASIN...FAIR WEATHER IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THEN INTO W ATLC WATERS TODAY...AND RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IS W OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW BASIN LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN ON WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES CONTINUE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS STALLS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N51W TO 24N60W WED MORNING...CONTINUING AS STATIONARY TO 21N74W. BY EARLY THU MORNING THE FRONT WILL BECOME FULLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM APPROXIMATELY 31N43W TO 24N58W. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR