000 AXNT20 KNHC 220604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W STARTING EARLY MORNING WED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE LATER ON WED MORNING AS A CENTER OF HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC MOVES E AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 02W AND 07W AND FROM 03S TO 02N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N88W THAT PROVIDES LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE HIGH AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ELSEWHERE. MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN THE NORTHERN BASIN...FAIR WEATHER IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THEN INTO W ATLC WATERS DURING TUE...AND RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND IS W OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ADJACENT WATERS. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE STARTING EARLY WED MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW BASIN LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL WEAKEN ON WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES CONTINUE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N53W TO 23N61W ON TUE NIGHT THEN WILL BECOME STATIONARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY WED BEFORE DISSIPATING THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR