000 AXNT20 KNHC 212338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W- 77W LATE TUE/EARLY WED MORNING AND WILL PULSE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N23W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W- 23W...AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER SW FLOW COVERS THE S GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF S OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 23N87W 21N94W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITH CLEAR SKIES COVER THE N GULF N OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY TUE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W TO 17N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM HAITI TO NE HONDURAS ON TUE THEN DRIFT W AND WEAKEN ON WED. STRONG E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON TUE AND WED NIGHTS. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE IN BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUE NIGHT AND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 26N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N75W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N56W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI ON TUE THEN FROM 32N53W TO 24N65W WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO HAITI ON TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY PORTION WILL THEN DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON WED. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW