000 AXNT20 KNHC 211739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WED MORNING. SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N11W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO 01N30W TO 01S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM NE MEXICO TO LOUISIANA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS S OF A LINE FROM 30N88W TO 21N97W. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE N OF THIS LINE. DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TODAY...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS COVERING THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR S GEORGIA. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TO THE E TO NE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO 21N87W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N80W TO 16N86W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHILE MOVING SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA ON TUE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY TUE NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WINDWARD LOCATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER HAITI TONIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N72W TO 26N78W TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N77W TO 22N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N30W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N62W TO E CUBA ON TUE MORNING WITH CONVECTION LIKELY WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO