000 AXNT20 KNHC 210542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 26.5N82W 22N90W 19N91W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 20N96W TO 19N95W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND IS FORECAST TO STOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...THROUGH A A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N99W...THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO 03N20W 01N28W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 01S32W 03S37W AND 05S40W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 31W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 18N92W JUST INLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 160 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 31N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA... EVENTUALLY INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 29N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W TO 24N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE 29N81W 24N98W LINE. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 23N80W 18N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN MARATHON KEY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA... IT CURVES TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE AREAS AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE AREAS AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT 21/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 21/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER BECOMES MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 24N25W 15N37W AND 05N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT