000 AXNT20 KNHC 202346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING SW GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF SW OF LINE FROM 20N96W TO 19N94W WITH NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 7N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND SARASOTA THEN ALONG 25N86W 22N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND EVERGLADES CITY ALONG 24N94W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON MON AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON TUE WHILE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF LINE FROM 23N82W TO 20N87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH MON THEN INCREASE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON TUE AND WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON THEN DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO E HONDURAS ON TUE. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL INCREASE BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W ALONG 30N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TITUSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N74W ALONG 31N74W 28N77W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N59W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI ON MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N52W TO 23N65W THEN STATIONARY TO HAITI. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW