000 AXNT20 KNHC 201741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT SW OF A LINE FROM 23N97W TO 19N95W. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04N14W TO 02N24W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N34W TO 00N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST US SUPPORTS LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF COAST NEAR 29N83W TO 24N90W TO 18N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO 23N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 94W. MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE S OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND WILL EXIT THE SE GULF OF MEXICO MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH THE ONGOING GALE OVER THE SW GULF UNTIL 0600 UTC MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE MON NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST US SUPPORTS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ONE OF THESE LOWS JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N80W TO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO 28N78W AND OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE EAST...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N29W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO