000 AXNT20 KNHC 201112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N83W 18N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST- TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N97W TO 19N95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N100W AT THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...THROUGH 24N99W... TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF... THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CAP BLANC AND CAP TIMIRIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W AND 02N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 01S32W AND 01S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM IOWA TO TEXAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 21N97W... AND SPREADING FROM NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 28N83W 21N97W LINE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 23N80W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR IN SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN EARLIER OBSERVATIONS IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA... IT CURVES TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...SIX HOURS AGO...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF 74W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE IS ALONG 26N61W 24N71W...TOWARD CUBA...AND HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF HISPANIOLA...ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE AND BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1400 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...CAVOK. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. WEST-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...AND EVENTUALLY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE NEAR 20N60W ARE INFLUENTIAL FEATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM 36 HOURS UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 34N51W. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 34N51W...TO 33N59W...BEYOND 34N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS...DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.60 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 24N30W 14N41W AND 04N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N48W...TO 26N61W 24N71W...TOWARD CUBA... AND HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT