000 AXNT20 KNHC 200002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR APALACHICOLA THROUGH 25N91W TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT TO 25N AND W OF 96W. REPORTS FROM TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ INDICATED WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 30 KT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH WINDS REACHING 40 KT SUN AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 14 FT BY LATE SUN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO 01S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 37W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUPPORTS DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 25N91W TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AS OF 2100 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THROUGH TAMPA TO 24N89W IN THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO 88W. GRIDDED LIGHTNING AND NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF 25N85W. THE COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS. THESE WINDS HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE N OF THE FRONT TO 25N AND W OF 96W...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT. SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE... EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SHORTLY FOLLOWING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND THE CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W PER SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THROUGH TAMPA TO 24N89W IN THE GULF IS MOVING E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 70W. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N76W TO JUST EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FURTHER EAST...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N47W AND IS PART OF A BROADER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH OVER THE AZORES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N41W TO 26N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE INCREASING N OF 25N W OF 75W AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTH CAROLINA PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB