000 AXNT20 KNHC 191753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT S OF 26N BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N14W TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF COAST NEAR 30N91W TO 26N97W. A VIGOROUS PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W TO 24N92W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28N89W TO 24N96W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N81W TO 26N88W...INCLUDING W CENTRAL FLORIDA. PRESENTLY...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING...WINDS OVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT S OF 26N WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CURRENTLY...MAINLY FRESH SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS BECOME STRONG AND VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SHORTLY FOLLOWING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING E AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 77W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N49W AND IS PART OF A BROADER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH OVER THE AZORES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N42W TO 26N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 75W AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO