000 AXNT20 KNHC 182326 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING SW GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN FROM 22N-24N W OF 96W THEN SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE W OF THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N14W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 6W-9W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA AND IN THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 70W GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. AREAS OF FOG OR HAZE ARE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY SAT AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT EVENING BEFORE MOVING E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N E OF 63W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE SECOND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-85W TO INLAND OVER CUBA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. MON EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THUS AN INCREASE CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER W ATLC ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 28N80W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 70W TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 28N46W TO 25N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N55W TO 22N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N54W TO 20N51W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN EVENING AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW