000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF STATES AND EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA ACROSS SE LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NW GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 21N96W TO 19N95W BY SAT NIGHT... THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE FAR SW GULF SUN AND SUN EVENING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 02N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO 02N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 01S40W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W...FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 10N AND 12N...AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 12N AND 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1016 MB CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF STATES GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AS NOTED ON LIGHTNING DATA. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N94W TO 19N95W. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS WARM AND HUMID LOW LEVEL FLOW...PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. ALOFT...A SW-W WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SW CONUS AND NW MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF INTO FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDE TOWARD THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE LEE OF CUBA. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA LATE SUN. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON...AND DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO FAR E HONDURAS LATE TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE ANTICYCLONE AS EVIDENT IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HISPANIOLA... UNDER A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ALOFT AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS... EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N60W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N45W THE CONTINUES SW TO 26N50W TO 22N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE TO FRESH S-SW WINDS ARE N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 41W PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANOTHER RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N30W CONTROLS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N51W TO 14N52W. SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. MOISTURE RELATED TO THIS TROUGH MAY REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUN. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA ALOFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR