000 AXNT20 KNHC 172332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N16W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 0.5N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM LIBERIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4.5N13W ALONG 3N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA AND IN THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W TO INLAND OVER N FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC ALONG 81W GIVING THE GULF BASIN MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W. REPORTS OF FOG OR HAZE ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS THE N GULF TONIGHT AND FRI STALLING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 24N95W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT THROUGH SUN DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ALONG 81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 64W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE SECOND ARE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S HAITI NEAR 19N72W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 17N85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN EVENING. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS S HAITI THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. THIS AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ALONG 81W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W ALONG 27N52W TO 23N60W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO 22N54W. A SECOND SHORT SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 9N50W TO 16N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N- 20N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W TO 27N26W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N31W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N42W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N37W AND A 1019 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N28W. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON SUN EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW