000 AXNT20 KNHC 171804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 06N11W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W AND FROM 06S TO 04N W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERING MOST OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF 86W. THE REMAINDER WESTERN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM EPAC TROPICAL WATERS INTO THE BASIN...WITH CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE FAR NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST...AS INDICATED BY THE LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N93W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. THE GOES-13 IFR PRODUCT DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BEING CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GOES-13 IFR PRODUCT SHOWS MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF FOG ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF 92W AND WITHIN 160 NM OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS AS VISIBILITY CAN BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW VARIABLE GENTLE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 26N WHERE MODERATE SE WIND DOMINATES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FRIDAY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SAT AS A PORTION OF THE FRONT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRES ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA COVERS MUCH OF THE SW AND S- CENTRAL BASIN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS SW HAITI AND WATERS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 23N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N50W TO 23N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N21W SW TO 26N27W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N34W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. TWO WEAK CENTERS OF HIGH PRES ARE NW AND SE OF THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 23N29W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS