000 AXNT20 KNHC 171117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N32W TO 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-01S BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLANTIC GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE E GULF TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE GULF BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-77W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE ISLAND INDUCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N73W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 32N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 21N58W TO 29N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG A E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 48W-57W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 23N37W TO 32N22W. SURFACE RIDGES ARE BUILDING BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N39W AND ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 23N28W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA