000 AXNT20 KNHC 170521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N31W TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-02S BETWEEN 27W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLANTIC GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE E GULF TO DISSIPATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-77W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND INDUCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N74W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N67W TO 32N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG A E OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 51W-59W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 21N40W TO 32N23W. SURFACE RIDGES ARE BUILDING BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N39W AND ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 23N26W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA