000 AXNT20 KNHC 162328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N57W 2N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES JUST INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC ALONG 80W GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N82W. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER ALONG THE N GULF AND WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N GULF LATE THU. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 24N96W ON FRI THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 59W-65W AND THE SECOND IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 17N79W INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU SHIFTING TO ONLY OVER HAITI THU THROUGH EARLY SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ALONG 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W ALONG 28N63W TO 26N66W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N25W ALONG 27N31W TO 23N38W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N46W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL AND A WEAKER 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N25W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE N FLORIDA ON SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW