000 AXNT20 KNHC 161754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N26W TO 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07S BETWEEN 10W-40W...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY PREVAILING E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF TO THE WEST OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 82W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND NWP GRIDPOINT DATA INDICATED WINDS OF 80-100 KT AT 250 MB ACROSS THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY W OF 90W BUT REMAINED LIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BECOMING OVERCAST ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST AND EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ADJACENT COAST THU INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z SAN JUAN RAOB WAS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE UP TO 675 MB AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THAT LEVEL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. FAIR SKIES PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 12Z RAOB FROM SANTO DOMINGO SHOWED SHALLOW MOISTURE TO ABOUT 700 MB WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THAT LEVEL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER HAITI AND THE INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. TO THE E...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N58W TO 27N57W WITH A COLD FRONT FURTHER W FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 45-60 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N59W TO 29N63W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 32N27W TO 27N33W...THEN A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N33W TO 23N41W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 21N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 29N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE WEAKENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB