000 AXNT20 KNHC 160515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N- 08S BETWEEN 12W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF FOG ARE OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALSO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INDUCING SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PERSISTENT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SIMILAR ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N78W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 20N28W. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 22N51W TO 22N46W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 28N34W TO 32N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE WEAKENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA