000 AXNT20 KNHC 152336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 11W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH HAZE OR FOG BEING REPORTED ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE RIO GRANDE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED THEN SHIFT E AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N GULF EARLY WED THEN WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES DOMINICA ALONG 16N68W TO 18N75W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA INCREASING TO NEAR GALE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH PATCHES OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU SHIFTING TO ONLY OVER HAITI THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N61W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N56W AND A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL INTO THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N32W ALONG 27N38W TO 29N43W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N50W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 22N28W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING E...ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW