000 AXNT20 KNHC 151749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 07N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SW AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT 23W. ITCZ CONTINUES THROUGH 02SS32W TO 03S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 01S-04S BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W IS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF FOG ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THE VICINITY OF VERACRUZ...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BASIN...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMDEDDED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OF 20-25 KT NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PERSISTENT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO SHOWED MOISTURE ONLY TO 850 MB WITH A STRONG DRY CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THAT LEVEL. ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE JUST UNDER 1.00 INCH. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N64W...A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N76W AND A THIRD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE AREA NEAR 33N10W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WAS GENERATING A VAST AREA OF OPEN CELLULAR CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC...INCLUDING THE TRADE WIND BELT WHERE WINDS WERE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING SE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB