000 AXNT20 KNHC 150527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03S32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-05S BETWEEN 17W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF HAZE AND FOG ARE OVER THE W AND NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HAZE AND FOG OVER THE W-NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALSO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PERSISTENT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1021MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 21N27W. TO THE N OF THESE FEATURES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N64W TO 29N57W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 28N48W TO 32N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING S WHILE WEAKENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA