000 AXNT20 KNHC 142349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W- 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC WHILE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF THIS EVENING. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF HAZE ARE OVER THE W GULF WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR ANTIGUA ALONG 18N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N E OF 83W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING THE TRADE WINDS IN PLACE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 74W-76W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N65W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N46W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 29N53W TO 29N58W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N65W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N13W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N27W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT E-NE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW